Oxford Economics has published a report on “what automation really means for jobs and productivity”, indicating that this decade robots will take over more than 20 million jobs, in manufacturing only.
The implication is current growth in robotics is “immense”, shared Adrian Cooper CEO and Chief Economist Oxford Economics, detailing the raising challenges for governments and policy makers:
“For both people and businesses, the effects of these job losses will vary greatly across countries and regions, with a disproportionate toll on lower-skilled workers and on poorer local economies. In many places, the impact will aggravate social and economic stresses from unemployment and income inequality in times when increasing political polarisation is already a worrying trend”
To provide more specific information, Oxford scientists have presented a Robot Vulnerability Index, “that ranks every region of seven developed economies in terms of how susceptible their respective workforces are to the installation of industrial robots”.
According to the Index, the most vulnerable states in the US are Oregon, Louisiana and Texas. In Germany, Bavaria region and Hamburg are most ready for the job market transformation, but areas like Chemnitz, Thüringen and Oberfranken share the same risks with most vulnerable states in the US.
As shows the trend, capitals are usually on the safe side, like Paris area in France, but rural areas with lower amount of skilled workforce and low level of automatization, like France-Comté region, might have to experience more disadvantages, coming from the current rate of robotics growth.
In the UK, “robotization exacerbate the north-south divide”, and West Midlands, due to its high level of dependence on manufacturing employment, is at high risk.
On the bright side, Oxford scientists predict the robot stock increase will lead to the boost in output per worker, which is again more important for regions with the lowest wages.
Also scientists predict that “innovations in AI, machine learning, and computing power” will contribute to the adoption not only in manufacturing, but also across service industries, yet in the healthcare industry, robots will “work alongside with humans, not replace them”.